金吾财讯 | 中信建投证券研究指，中短期内债券市场预计转入盘整震荡阶段。回顾市场趋势，4月长债及超长债走强是美伊冲突缓和、“高通胀”预期退潮带动低估值迅速修复的结果。随着10Y国债来到1.75%一线，30Y国债来到2.20%-2.25%区间，长端估值已修复至合理水平，进一步走强较为困难。考虑到当前经济内生动能仍旧偏弱，后续点位亦无向上压力。故综合来看，旧主线动能转弱将暂时带动债市转入盘整震荡阶段，后续可关注增量政策及重要信息，对内需变化、降息时点、中美贸易格局变化等内容保持关注，等待新主线的出现。
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