金吾财讯 | 青岛啤酒(00168)盘初走高，截至发稿，报53.25港元，涨1.14%，成交额1415.84万港元。对应A股(600600)小幅上涨0.16%，最新报62.55元人民币，成交额7974.93万元人民币。中信建投证券研究指出，25年啤酒行业受“禁酒令”影响，旺季销量表现疲软，餐饮行业持续弱复苏。青啤销量表现稳健，公司加强对新零售渠道拓展并积极探索非啤酒品类，当前中高端产品占比持续提升，青岛啤酒经典、白啤等核心大单品为引领增长，26Q1吨价重回增长通道(26Q1公司平均吨价为4671元/千升，增长1.10%)，利润表现超预期，高端化仍有空间。关注后续啤酒旺季表现&餐饮渠道恢复，啤酒高端化仍在途中。25年青啤分红率约70%，H股红利属性较强，分红率未来仍有提升空间，估值回落至低位，底部配置价值凸显。该机构预计2026-2028年公司实现收入328.90、332.59、335.51亿元，实现归母净利润48.86、51.94、54.34亿元，维持“买入”评级。
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