招商证券国际：中国乳制品原奶周期迎拐点上调蒙牛乳业(02319)评级至“增持” 上游首选优然牧业(09858)

智通财经

May 07

智通财经APP获悉，招商证券国际发布研报称，中国乳制品行业原乳价格触底标志着上游环节乃至整个乳制品产业迎来了关键拐点，预计这将开启一轮跨年的估值重估周期。该行首选上游为优然牧业(09858)，特色生鲜乳占比超20%支撑较高均价。透过优化牛群与提升单产，未来公斤奶成本仍有0.1-0.2元下降空间。奶价回温将提升生质资产公允价值并减少淘牛损失。中性预期下(奶价涨2%、成本持平)，经生物资产调整前净利可望同比增17%。该行上调下游龙头蒙牛乳业(02319)评级至“增持”。

该行认为，两年的产能与库存去化后，该行测算行业2025年下半年供需缺口已收窄至单位数，且原奶价格在2025年四季度企稳于3.0-3.05元人民币(下同)/公斤。漫长的下行周期加速了中小牧场的出清，推动供给侧格局重塑，使其进一步向头部企业集中。

蒙牛乳业一季表现稳健，液态奶销售录得高单位数增长，以及配方奶粉、乳酪、鲜奶等其他品类实现双位数增长。该行预计2026年联营企业营收将恢复至获利1.10亿元，公司拟在2025–2027年期间稳定提升每股股息，同时维持与2024/2025年相当的股份回购节奏。该计划也将得到相对稳健(甚至可能更低)的资本开支目标支持。

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