煤炭股整体承压 兖矿能源(01171)跌3.01% 机构看多煤炭板块建议逢低布局

金吾财讯
May 05

金吾财讯 | 港股煤炭股整体承压,截至发稿,中国秦发(00866)跌5.71%,兖矿能源(01171)跌3.01%,力量发展(01277)跌2.95%,易大宗(01733)跌2.67%,首钢资源(00639)跌2.56%,MONGOL MINING(00975)跌2.38%。信达证券研究指,其一直提出的煤炭产能短缺的底层投资逻辑未变(短期供需基本平衡,中长期仍存缺口)、煤价底部确立并中枢站上新平台的趋势未变、优质煤企高盈利&高现金流&高ROE&高分红的核心资产属性未变、煤炭资产相对低估且估值整体性仍有望提升的判断未变,以及公募基金煤炭持仓处于低配状态。基于此,煤炭板块配置策略不可忽视红利特性,又要把握顺周期弹性。即,煤炭板块向下回调有高股息边际支撑,向上弹性有后续煤价上涨预期催化。特别强调的是,在全球货币趋宽松、美元信用趋弱、AI产业带来投资新需求、矿产资源供给刚性、以及全球能源安全优先级抬升和矿产资源保护主义等多重扰动下,矿产资源等大宗商品有望迎来上涨周期,同时煤炭作为我国能源安全压舱石与核心硬资产,其矿产资源价值或被重新定价,叠加资本市场流动性溢价,煤炭传统周期估值逻辑有望被打破,进而迎来估值中枢系统性上移与重估。鉴于此,该机构仍坚定看多煤炭板块,建议逢低布局。总体上,能源大通胀背景下,机构认为未来3-5年煤炭供需偏紧的格局仍未改变,优质煤炭企业依然具有高壁垒、高现金、高分红、高股息的属性,叠加煤价筑底推动板块估值重塑,板块投资攻守兼备且具有高性价比,短期板块回调后已凸显出较高的投资价值,再度建议重点关注现阶段煤炭的配置机遇。

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