Palantir looks to prove it doesn’t belong in software selloff

Carmen Reinicke / Bloomberg

May 04

Palantir Technologies Inc heads into its first-quarter earnings with something to prove to investors: That it’s been wrongly caught up in the selloff that has gripped software stocks for months.(May 4...

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The decline is part of a rough few months for software stocks as investors, concerned that artificial intelligence (AI) tools could chip away at earnings growth, dumped shares across the sector, often indiscriminately.\nIn the face of those AI worries, forward guidance “is going to matter a lot,” said Nancy Tengler, CEO and chief investment officer of Laffer Tengler Investments, who holds Palantir shares and has added to the position in the recent selloff. Margins are also going to be a major focus “because that’s the rebuttal to the ‘AI is eating software story,’” she added.\nShares rose 2.5% on Monday.\nWall Street, meanwhile, has remained remarkably steadfast in its bullish conviction for Palantir. Analysts are expecting the company to report a 74% jump in revenue in 1Q with adjusted profits more than doubling from a year ago. On top of that, their average 12-month price target for the stock has fallen less than 3% over the last six months despite the shares losing nearly a quarter of their value over that span. That implies a 27% gain from Friday’s closing price of US$144.07.\nInvestors will be paying particularly close attention to where Palantir’s revenue growth is coming from. Government revenue, which makes up a little over half of total billings and has historically been Palantir’s largest segment, is expected to grow about 59% in the quarter. Commercial revenue, its other main segment, is seen surging more than 91%.\n“Palantir’s government segment continues to benefit from the company’s exposure to increased US defense spending on products such as Maven amid the war with Iran,” Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Mandeep Singh wrote in a note on April 27. “Still, commercial new-logo gains and international durability remain key watch points, as customer additions are expected to decelerate to 30%, especially after Michael Burry’s recent comments around disruption risk from frontier-model providers such as Anthropic.” \nBurry, of The Big Short fame, unleashed a barrage of criticism about the company last month after previously disclosing he had a bearish position in the name. His most recent critique came last month, just hours after a post on Truth Social by President Donald Trump that praised the firm’s “war fighting abilities and equipment.”\nOne point of contention, both for Burry and other bears, has been Palantir’s lofty valuation. Less than a year ago the stock traded at nearly 90 times estimated sales, the highest of any S&P 500 Index member at the time. While this year’s selloff has cut its valuation by more than half, it’s still the most expensive stock in the benchmark by that metric at 42 times. \n“While Palantir’s high valuation remains a concern for the investment community, we see it as justified as Palantir is rapidly becoming the leading platform for AI application deployment across the Government and Commercial sectors,” Oppenheimer analyst Param Singh wrote in an note last week. initiating coverage on Palantir with an outperform rating and US$200 price target. \nOf course, even blowout results might not be enough to meaningfully convince investors to buy, especially given its premium valuation and the high bar it has set for itself following a string of earnings beats. Palantir shares popped nearly 7% the day after reporting a solid full-year revenue forecast for fiscal 2026 in February, but the rally was short-lived, with shares sinking 18% over the next two days.\n“Their bar is higher than a mature company’s bar,” said Mark Giarelli at Morningstar Investment Service, who has a hold rating and US$153 price target on shares. “The market still thinks that they’re going to grow at a very aggressive rate,” he added. \n“It’s going be hard for Palantir to touch US$200 unless there’s a revival in animal spirits.”\nUploaded by Felyx Teoh","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"}}}