金吾财讯 | 中信建投证券发布研报指，核心观点指出中国财险(02328)一季度负债端表现稳中向好，业务量增质优带动承保利润稳健增长；资产端受权益市场表现弱于去年同期及高基数影响而有所回落，利润增速短期承压。展望来看，非车险“报行合一”利好费用率改善，出险率下降有望带动新能源车险赔付率改善，整体承保利润有望延续增长，行业马太效应有望进一步强化。目标价19.39港元，评级“买入”。
关键财务数据：一季度承保利润71.54亿元，同比+7.5%；保险服务收入1230.15亿元，同比+1.9%；综合成本率94.2%，同比-0.3个百分点。净利润86.31亿元，同比-23.7%，主要因总投资收益同比-38.4%至46.00亿元，未年化总投资收益率0.7%，同比-0.5个百分点。
业务聚焦：保险服务收入增长主要由机动车险驱动，其保险服务收入同比+2.3%至760.56亿元；非机动车险保险服务收入同比+1.2%至469.59亿元。原保险保费口径下，车险维持不变，非车险同比+2.3%，其中意健险同比+6.5%为主要驱动因素。
风险提示：市场竞争加剧超预期、车险赔付率上升超预期、自然灾害风险影响超预期。
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