Bulls in control on Wall Street and Main Street after gold’s solid showing, with inflation, retail sales, and Warsh vote on deck

Kitco

May 08

(Kitco News) – Gold’s performance was delivered in three acts this week, with the yellow metal falling early as oil-driven inflation and yield risk overwhelmed the haven bid, before finding a firm ...

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delivered in three acts this week, with the yellow metal falling early as oil-driven inflation and yield risk overwhelmed the haven bid, before finding a firm ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2026-05-08/bulls-control-wall-street-and-main-street-after-golds-solid-showing\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"kitco_highlight","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Bulls in control on Wall Street and Main Street after gold’s solid showing, with inflation, retail sales, and Warsh vote on deck</title>\n<style 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metal falling early as oil-driven inflation and yield risk overwhelmed the haven bid, before finding a firm ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2026-05-08/bulls-control-wall-street-and-main-street-after-golds-solid-showing\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"DBC","symbol_name":"商品指数ETF-PowerShares 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with the yellow metal opening the week under pressure despite the Strait of Hormuz risk premium, falling to the mid-$4,500s by Monday morning. The early move suggested traders were treating the U.S.-Iran shock as inflationary first and haven-supportive second, with oil strength, firm yields and a resilient dollar weighing against bullion.Tuesday saw gold prices stabilize around the mid-$4,500s, with analysts noting that gold stopped falling even as conflict risk remained live, setting up the midweek reversal once the rates and dollar backdrop improved.Wednesday delivered the clean breakout, with spot gold rising as much as 3.6% and trading comfortably above $4,700 per ounce as hopes for a U.S.-Iran deal eased oil-inflation concerns, pulled yields lower and softened the dollar. That gave gold its strongest alignment of the week: lower real-rate pressure, a weaker dollar, and a residual geopolitical bid.Thursday extended the move, with spot gold trading from about $4,696.50 to $4,743.81 and closing near $4,740.47. The market was no longer just recovering from Monday’s liquidation; it was pushing above $4,700 ahead of Friday’s key U.S. data.Friday turned into consolidation rather than a reversal. Gold traded between $4,677.90 and $4,750.40, then closed near $4,716.20 after April payrolls rose 115,000 and unemployment held at 4.3%, limiting the rate-cut impulse, while softer University of Michigan consumer sentiment, coming in at 48.2, helped keep the metal supported into the close.The latest Kitco News Weekly Gold Survey showed two-thirds of Wall Street and Main Street back on the bandwagon for next week after gold’s solid showing.“Gold held support near $4,500 early in the week and caught a good bid in the middle of the week as oil prices tumbled, rates eased and the dollar pulled back,” noted Marc Chandler, managing director at Bannockburn Global Forex. “It retraced (61.8%) of the losses since April 17 high near $4,890.”“The PBOC’s reserve figures showed it was a big buyer of gold on the pullback last month,” Chandler added. “The next immediate target may be $4850.”“Down,” said Darin Newsom, senior market analyst at Barchart.com. “Why? Because I’ve said up for the past two weeks with mixed results. Has anything changed globally? No. But it doesn’t have to for the market to flip-flop. If I want to make up a technical reason for this week’s guess, I’ll say the June contract has pulled within sight of its 50-day moving average, calculated Friday at $4,812.20. June hasn’t been above its 50-day, based on daily closes only, since March 17. The previous time it drew close was on Friday, April 17, leading to a nearly $350 selloff through May 4.”“If gold sells off next week, as long as it stays above the May 4 low of $4,533.30, it would still be considered in an uptrend,” Newsom added.Sean Lusk, co-director of commercial hedging at Walsh Trading, said that the employment report didn’t help gold in the near term, but the metals should pick up as markets get more clarity on the economy and Iran.“I think it was a little bit better number than they thought,” he said. “The initial reaction was supportive in the market… I think with energy prices being where they were, and all that’s going on, you're not going to be cutting rates. Or at least you shouldn't be, because you're going to still fuel inflation.”He said that beneath the market, he sees conditions quite similar to what the economy faced in 2021 and 2022. “You have alarm bells that you’ve got to pay attention to as far as the supply chain's concerned, bottlenecks, or this, that, and the other thing, until there's an ending or a little more clarity on what's going on in the Middle East,” he said. “Otherwise, it could rear its ugly head down the road, spike inflation, and now you're talking about tightening, not easing.”Lusk said that it will probably take a pullback in equities before we see a sustained bid in gold. “At that time, should that happen, then you may get some safe haven buying into the metals,” he said. “But until then, we’ve got to see a couple more [jobs] reports. And more importantly, we've got to see what it means for the indices overall. There's going to be a shift change here [at the Fed] with [Warsh] going in, but he doesn't strike me as a complete dove. And more to the point, they talked about raising. Do those voices become louder? Because that should lift the dollar, which should press gold here a little bit in the near term.”“But I think gold's getting set up, and silver.”Lusk said that as long as the stock market continues to rocket higher, there’s not a lot of money going into gold.“We haven't seen an abandonment of equities at all,” he said. “You’ve got more flow coming in there, and that's been the trend the last three years. Gold and silver have run with the equities, and they've gone the inverse of energy. Oil peaked up to $100 when the war in Ukraine started back in 2022, when everything was inflationary because rates were at zero after the pandemic. Since then, gold and the stock market have skyrocketed, while energies, up until this conflict, it was sell the rallies, and the path of least resistance was lower.”“Now, boy oh boy… I would have thought energy, given what's going on, would be back up at $120, and we really haven't sniffed that.”But while the metals will remain under pressure in the near term, Lusk said gold has found solid support each time it’s dipped, and he thinks it’s attractive at these levels.“Where would you rather be?” he said. “You’ve got monetary policy that's probably not going to go anywhere. They may talk rate hikes, but until we see the inflationary data, they're not going to do it. So up until that point, you’ve got to say [gold] is a buy down here. Silver's a buy down here.”“We think there's going to be another run in the mid to late summer, and then we look for prices to back off on a seasonal-type basis in the end of the year.“Gold really hasn't backed off much,” Lusk pointed out. “It's backed off due to the war, I think that's created some lack of physical demand, not just the U.S., but physical demand from other nations across the board are feeling the ripple effects of this.”“But I think this goes back over $5,000 and we re-challenge, $5,200 to $5,400 by Labor Day.”This week, 11 analysts participated in the Kitco News Gold Survey, with Wall Street sentiment turning firmly bullish after gold held support and moved higher. Seven experts, or 64%, expected to see gold prices move higher during the week ahead, while only one, representing 9% of the total, predicted a price decline. The remaining three analysts, or 27%, expected to see consolidation during the week ahead.Meanwhile, 153 votes were cast in Kitco’s online poll, with Main Street investors once again mirroring their professional counterparts. 106 retail traders, or 69%, looked for gold prices to rise next week, while another 27, or 1%, predicted the yellow metal would lose ground. The remaining 20 investors, representing 13% of the total, expected gold prices to trend sideways next week.After a week where markets were focused on Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report, next week spreads out the significant indicators and market-moving news events.Monday morning will see the release of existing home sales for April, followed by Tuesday’s April CPI report and a possible Senate vote on Kevin Warsh’s confirmation as the new head of the Fed.Then on Wednesday, markets will receive April PPI, with Thursday morning delivering April’s Retail Sales along with weekly jobless claims.The week wraps up with the Friday morning release of the Empire State Manufacturing Survey for May.Kevin Grady, president of Phoenix Futures and Options, said this week’s developments were good for the U.S. even as they benefited stocks and gold.Grady said many analysts have been betting against the US economy for the last couple of years, but they’ve had to eat their words as quarterly earnings were fantastic once again, and Friday's employment numbers show that the overall economy remains in good shape. He pointed out that the U.S. is able to pump enough oil of its own to keep domestic prices well below Brent, and this is giving the administration wiggle room on the economy and on the Iran war itself. He noted that even with the renewed flare-ups of the last 24 hours, WTI crude has held below $100. Grady also said the U.S. embargo on Iranian shipping through the strait has been a gamechanger. Before the U.S. embargo, Iran believed it was in a position to continue selling its own oil to China and others, while blocking oil shipments from U.S. allies like Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States, but the U.S. embargo takes all that income off the table and forces them back into serious negotiations.As for gold's positive weekly performance – and when the precious metals may begin to resume their rally – Grady said market participants would do well to ignore the recent price action and focus instead on open interest and daily volumes. He pointed out that there have been days this week with fewer than 125,000 contracts traded over the entire day on Comex, which shows that institutions and retail traders are essentially out of the market right now. Grady said that until we get back up to healthy trading volumes, and until we get a strong price move higher on significantly stronger volume, the smart money will stay out of the metals, and the price moves that do happen will be volatile and inconsistent. Alex Kuptsikevich, senior market analyst at FxPro, expects gold prices to post gains next week.“Gold rose steadily on news of de-escalation in the conflict between the US and Iran,” he said. “From its low to its high, the rise more than offset the decline of the previous two weeks. This is an important indicator of the rally’s strength, as is the sixth consecutive week of gains for the stock index.”“Gold is attempting to break the downward trend, with resistance passing through the highs of January, March and April,” Kuptsikevich noted. “Strictly speaking, gold needs to consolidate above $4,860, i.e. the area of previous local highs and above the 50-day moving average. However, signs of strength in the move are bolstering optimism.”“It is quite possible that next week, the price of gold will once again approach, or even exceed, $4,900.”Michael Moor, founder of Moor Analytics, expects to see higher gold prices next week, but warned that prices could fall if they break below key near-term support levels.“Higher, unless we take out lower timeframe formations mentioned below,” he wrote. “In a Higher time frame: I cautioned on 8/16/18 the break above $1,183.0 warned of renewed strength. We have seen $4,443.1. This is OFF HOLD. We held exhaustion at 56192 with a 56268 high and rolled over $1,526.8. This is ON HOLD. On a medium timeframe basis: The trade below 52554 (+15 tics per/hour) projects this down $220 minimum, $740 (+) maximum—we attained $1,155.4. The trade back below 52036 (+13 per/hour) has brought in $1,103.6 of pressure. The trade back below 51606 (+13 per/hour) has brought in $1,060.6 of pressure. The trade below 48530 (+4 tics per/hour) has brought in $753.0 of pressure. These are ON HOLD. We held exhaustion at 40956 with a 41000 low and have rallied $817.7. The trade above 41814 has brought in $736.3 of strength. The trade above 43642 has brought in $553.5 of strength. The trade above 47119 (-12 tics per/hour) projects this upward $155 min, $540 (+) max—we attained $205.8 so far. These are OFF HOLD.”“On a lower timeframe basis: We held exhaustion with a 49177 high and rolled over $407.6,” Moor said. “The break below 48185 projected this down $185 (+)—we attained $308.4. The trade below 47923 projected this down $205 (+)—we attained $282.2. These are ON HOLD. We held exhaustion below at 45231-219 with a 45101 low and rallied $265.1 into a bullish correction/trend against the move down from 49177. The trade above 45676 (-10 per/hour) has brought in $207.6. The trade above 46071 has brought in $168.1 of strength. On 4/6 we left a minor and medium bullish reversal. The trade above 46730 projects this upward $150 (+)—we have attained $102.2. The break back above 47112 (-5.5 tics per/hour) warns of renewed strength.”At the time of writing, spot gold last traded at $4,715.72 per ounce for a gain of 1.95% on the week and 0.61% on the day.","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"}}}