The latest Market Talks covering Commodities. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.

0914 ET - Drought conditions in the western Plains continue to be felt in U.S. winter wheat, with the USDA cutting its outlook for crop. The government says only 28% of the winter wheat crop is in good or excellent condition, down from 31% the prior week. "That's a single point ahead of the two worst-rated crops of the last 35+ years, in between the two worst crops of the last decade," says Matt Zeller of StoneX in a note. This week's rating is well off from the 54% measured at this time last year, according to the USDA. CBOT wheat is up 1.8% premarket. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)

0904 ET - Gold prices fall but remain above $4,700 a troy ounce after the latest U.S. data showed inflation soared in April, driven by higher gasoline prices. U.S. consumer prices rose 3.8% last month, surpassing the previous month's reported increase of 3.3% and expectations of a 3.7% rise. In afternoon European trading, New York futures are down 0.4% to $4,710.70 a troy ounce. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar index--which measures the greenback against a basket of major currencies--is up 0.3% to 98.24. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)

0856 ET - European natural-gas prices rise as a lack of progress in U.S.-Iran negotiations and tighter supplies cloud the outlook. The benchmark Dutch TTF front-month contract is up 1.4% to 46.90 euros a megawatt hour. Gas storage levels are around 34% of capacity, well below the five-year seasonal norm of 47%. This highlights a tighter storage position heading into the stockpiling season. Supply is also under pressure from an unplanned outage at Norway's Hammerfest LNG plant, according to ANZ. Meanwhile, Asian buyers have turned more aggressively to the spot market to secure supply. "With only a few shipments transiting the Strait of Hormuz, supply contracts are not being met," analysts at the firm say. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)

0829 ET - HSBC raised its Brent crude price forecast, assuming that traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and Gulf oil production will gradually recover from mid-June. "Our base case now assumes...a return to near normal system-level production and flows by the end of 3Q26," Kim Fustier, the bank's senior oil-and-gas analyst, says. "A longer disruption implies larger inventory drawdowns, a more challenging post-war refill, and a higher residual risk premium, supporting a higher long-term price anchor." HSBC now expects Brent to average $95 a barrel this year, up from $80 a barrel previously. The international oil benchmark is forecast at $75 a barrel from 2027 onward, compared with an earlier estimate of $70. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)

0817 ET - Copper prices rise, nearing the $14,000-a-metric-ton mark crossed earlier this year, after President Trump said the cease-fire with Iran was on "life support." Three-month copper futures on the LME are up 0.1% to $13,936 a ton. "The recovery seen in recent weeks across a wide range of financial markets has shown that the market currently fears only limited economic repercussions from the ongoing crisis in the Middle East," analysts at Commerzbank say. "The longer the blockade lasts, however, the more severe the impact on the global economy is likely to be, meaning that the risk of setbacks should not be underestimated." (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)

0800 ET - The U.S. government's potential suspension of the gasoline tax to address a surge in fuel prices suggests officials don't foresee a swift deal with Iran to end the war, Barbara Lambrecht from Commerzbank says. President Trump said he backs suspending the federal tax "until it's appropriate," arguing prices will fall sharply once the conflict winds down. "For U.S. consumers, however, this does not provide much relief, as a gallon of gasoline currently costs nearly $4.50 in the U.S., and only 18.4 cents of that is [the] gasoline tax," Lambrecht says. According to AAA, the average nationwide cost of one gallon of regular unleaded gasoline was $3.14 a year ago. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)

0633 ET - Palm oil prices closed lower, having pared some earlier losses. Weakness in Dalian palm oil prices pressured the market in earlier trading, says Abdul Hameed, director of sales at Pakistan-based Manzoor Trading. However, upbeat data of exports of palm oil for the first ten days of the month, as well as lower production have supported palm oil prices and narrowed the losses, Hameed says. The Bursa Malaysia Derivatives contract for July delivery closed 33 ringgit higher at 4,483 ringgit a ton. (jiahui.huang@wsj.com; @ivy_jiahuihuang)

0330 ET - Gold prices could touch new highs this year, buoyed by macro uncertainty boosting diversification into gold and broadening private and official sector demand, says UBS Investment Bank's Joni Teves in commentary. Investor flows appear to be the main reason for gold's near-term moves, while official sector gold flows provide support, the precious metals strategist says. Near-term consolidation, particularly any pullbacks testing the $4,000 level, could be an opportunity to build positions in gold, she adds, given that the market remains underinvested for now. UBS Investment Bank's year-end gold target is $5,600 a troy ounce. Spot gold falls 0.8% to $4,697.05 an ounce. (megan.cheah@wsj.com)

0322 ET - Gold prices fall as a fragile cease-fire between the U.S. and Iran clouds the outlook. In early European trading, gold futures in New York are down 0.7% to $4,697.70 a troy ounce. "The market appears to be stuck between geopolitical anxiety and rising inflation worries," analysts at ANZ say. Meanwhile, physical demand might also be at risk, as India's prime minister called on citizens to avoid buying gold for a year to preserve foreign-exchange reserves. Traders now await the release of key U.S. inflation data, with CPI figures due later on Tuesday and PPI on Wednesday. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)

0259 ET - Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi's call for citizens to reduce energy use and conserve foreign exchange may signal policy changes ahead, Nomura analysts Sonal Varma and Aurodeep Nandi say in a note. The government's reliance on fiscal spending to cushion surging energy costs since the Iran war began appears to be waning amid concerns over widening fiscal and current account deficits and further rupee weakness, they say. Nomura forecasts India's fiscal deficit to reach 4.6% of GDP in the FY ending March 2027, above the government's 4.3% target, while the current account deficit is projected to widen to 2.4%. Nomura says potential policy measures may include disincentivizing gold imports, tighter outward remittance rules and allowing for higher domestic fuel prices. (jason.chau@wsj.com)

0036 ET - Malaysia's palm oil stock levels will likely remain flat in May, as a potential rebound in exports may be offset by continued seasonally higher production, Hong Leong IB analyst Chye Wen Fei says in a note. She forecasts crude palm oil prices to remain elevated at 4,500 ringgit a ton to 4,600 ringgit a ton in 2Q before moderating from 3Q. Chye maintains an overweight rating on the Malaysian plantation sector, supported by near-term strength in CPO prices driven by elevated crude oil prices. However, she cautions that the current upcycle may be front-loaded, and the commodity faces medium-term risks if supplies of other vegetable oils increase and become more competitive. Hong Leong prefers pure upstream planters that have already locked in their fertilizer costs for the year, pegging Johor Plantations and SD Guthrie as top picks. (yingxian.wong@wsj.com)

2304 ET - Iron ore edges lower in Asian trading, with the most-traded iron-ore contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange down 0.1% at 819.5 yuan a ton. Capital inflows into the broader ferrous market has inflated iron ore's valuations, Nanhua Futures analysts say in a research note. With ample supply growth and current prices outstripping fundamentals, the risk of chasing longs at these levels has surged, they add. (tracy.qu@wsj.com)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

May 12, 2026 09:15 ET (13:15 GMT)

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