【券商聚焦】国泰海通：供需格局继续向好，煤价触底回升

金吾财讯

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金吾财讯 | 国泰海通证券表示，供需格局继续向好，煤价触底回升，开启新一轮周期。回顾2025年至2026Q1煤炭行业：从需求端看，2025年全年火电发电量6.29万亿千瓦时，同比-1.0%，多年来首次负增长，电煤需求触底。2026Q1火电发电量同比+3.7%，恢复正增长。展望2026年，新兴业态的AI、新能源、城乡等用电需求已经逐步占新增用电贡献大头，电力需求有望继续维持5%以上的较好增长态势。同时新能源将正式步入“降速提质”的新发展阶段，对于火电替代压力将见顶回落，煤炭最主要需求的火电需求有望恢复增长。供给端看，2025年全年原煤产量48.3亿吨，同比+1.2%，预计2026年国内产量基本稳定。2025年，中国煤及褐煤进口量4.9亿吨，同比下降9.6%。2026年受美伊冲突影响，海外煤价涨幅高于国内，进口煤价格倒挂下，预计进口量将进一步下滑。展望后市，2026年4月下旬以来，在节前补库的带动下，港口煤价大幅上涨。鉴于现在明显较低的港口库存及攀升的日耗，预计电厂补库力度不小，并有望叠加煤化工行业补库，力度超过以往，煤价大涨刚刚拉开序幕。该机构认为即使完全不考虑地缘的影响，实际全球中长期煤炭的供需平衡表也步入了边际市场收缩，看多全球煤炭资源，全球的煤价中枢有望持续提升。重申战略性看多未来5-10年的能源大周期；A股推荐未来5年维度有量增成长性的龙头。

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