金吾财讯 | 国泰海通证券表示，热点主题交易热度显著提升，光通信与商业航天主题领涨，石油石化主题回调。光通信方面，物料紧缺是核心预期锚，看好供需错配物料涨价催化下的光芯片/光纤光缆。英伟达将通过认股权证方式对康宁进行最高27亿美元的投资，康宁将光连接产能提升10倍、光纤扩产50%以上。随着高速光模块逐步进入规模化部署阶段，下游对磷化铟芯片的需求呈现快速增长态势。2025年全球磷化铟衬底供需缺口超70%，2026年全球需求飙升将加剧供给缺口。多地光纤招标价格大幅提升，AI数据中心与无人机等需求驱动，供需矛盾支撑光纤价格。推荐：1、受益算力资本开支持续加码的光纤/光芯片/磷化铟衬底产业链；2、受益新技术应用部署的OCS等新技术。
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