《大行》高盛:推迟美联储减息预期至今年12月及明年3月 经济衰退概率下调至25%

AASTOCKS
May 11

高盛发表报告,将预测中的最后两次联储局减息时间各推迟一个季度,至2026年12月及2027年3月,同时维持终端利率预测不变于3厘至3.25厘。该行预期能源成本传导效应将使全年核心PCE通胀按年增速更接近3%而非2%,这意味着需要看到更低的月度通胀数据以及劳动市场进一步降温,联邦公开市场委员会才有可能减息。此外,由于油价飙升开始以来的近期经济活动数据保持韧性,该行将美国未来12个月内经济衰退概率下调...

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