金吾财讯 | 中信建投表示，阿联酋多重战略诉求驱动退出 OPEC 及 OPEC+。阿联酋宣布5 月1日起退出OPEC及OPEC+，核心源于与欧佩克 “减产保价” 路线的经济冲突；此外，伊朗战事中盟友保护不足、沙特2030愿景引发区域竞争白热化，叠加特朗普将军事支持与油价挂钩，促使阿联酋以 “退群” 换取战略自主与美国安全承诺。短期供应尾部风险加剧，中长期 OPEC 定价权削弱。阿联酋退出后布伦特、WTI 期价盘中跳水，隐含波动率骤升；其单方面增产或引发成员国效仿，甚至触发 “价格战”，打破市场脆弱紧平衡。中长期看，阿联酋作为核心产油国退出，标志OPEC及OPEC +垄断定价权遭削弱；油价中枢下移、波动加剧将加速能源贸易格局重构，同时降低传统能源成本，对全球新能源转型短期节奏产生一定影响。阿联酋退出利好油运。2014年底美国页岩油与传统石油因争夺份额增产，油价下跌，补库需求大增，驱动2015-2016年油运牛市。阿联酋可通过阿曼湾侧管道路线输出160-180万桶/日原油。下一步将通过船船过驳方式，继续出售原油。继续看好油运牛市不动摇。
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