方舟投资（ARKInvest）创始人、首席执行官兼首席投资官凯西·伍德（CathieWood）发文称，当前市场数据中一个值得关注的信号是：尽管过去三个月油价大幅上涨，收益率曲线仍持续趋平。从历史规律来看，在传统经济周期中，若美联储对能源冲击采取货币化宽松举措，收益率曲线理应陡峭化，而非趋平。而本轮能源冲击并未得到美联储的货币化宽松支持。
方舟投资认为，债券市场或许已开始提前定价一股影响更为深远的力量：人工智能以及技术赋能下全社会生产率提升所带来的通缩效应。
训练人工智能模型的成本正大幅下降，模型推理成本的降幅更为迅猛。与此同时，官方经济数据表象之下，生产率增速似在持续加快，单位劳动力成本也维持在极低水平。
当前市场主流论调大多聚焦关税、财政赤字以及通胀结构性走高。但深层市场信号愈发表明，由科技创新驱动的去通胀力量正在积蓄势能。
方舟投资认为，未来6至9个月通胀数据大概率会低于市场预期。若这一判断成立，将对利率走势和长久期股票产生深远影响。
从历史经验来看，市场往往会低估技术创新重塑宏观经济环境的速度与幅度。
责任编辑：刘明亮
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