建材水泥股多数上扬 中国建材(03323)涨3.10% 机构料今年去产能效果有望显现

金吾财讯
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金吾财讯 | 建材水泥股多数上扬,中国建材(03323)涨3.10%,金隅集团(02009)涨2.67%,海螺水泥(00914)涨2.61%,华润建材科技(01313)涨1.44%,亚洲水泥(中国)(00743)、西部水泥(02233)跟涨。银河证券近日研究指,4月各区域水泥企业不同程度试探性推涨,但复价效果不及预期,全国水泥均价环比下降。后续来看,5月部分水泥企业会继续尝试推涨,但在需求疲软及库存压力下,预计价格推涨落地效果有限,水泥价格或将继续小幅下降。原材料涨价驱动企业提价,盈利有望边际修复。2026年一季度建筑及装潢材料类零售额同比下降4.7%,降幅较1-2月扩大2.5pct;其中3月单月零售额同比下降9%。一季度为家装淡季,叠加地产销售继续走弱,消费建材在家装市场需求同比下滑。后续来看,短期二季度家装市场需求有望边际改善;中长期城市更新战略的持续落地将释放修缮、旧改等需求,“好房子”建设标准的推进将提升高品质绿色建材的市场渗透率,具备产品品质优势及生产技术环保优势的消费建材龙头企业有望受益。近期因原材料成本上涨,多家消费建材龙头企业发布涨价函,叠加“反内卷”政策催化下,龙头企业盈利有望修复。

该机构指,2026年去产能效果有望显现,行业供需格局改善预期增强,价格有望边际回升,企业盈利有望逐步修复;此外,水泥龙头企业加速海外产能布局,将贡献更多业绩增量,拉开龙头企业盈利差距。

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