金吾财讯 | 交银国际研报指，泡泡玛特(09992)2026年1季度整体收入同比增75-80%。其中，中国市场表现亮眼，同比增100-105%，而海外市场增速如期放缓。考虑到原材料及运输成本上行、海外增速放缓等因素，该机构下调了2026-28年的盈利预测，下调目标价至218.90港元（仍基于20倍预期市盈率）。尽管目标价有所下调，但公司全球化扩张、IP平台化运营的核心增长逻辑未变，当前估值（对应2026年市盈率约14倍）具备较高的安全边际，因此仍维持买入评级。管理层表示，受相关原材料价格和运输费用上涨、关税增加及市场结构变化影响，预计2026年毛利率将有1-2个百分点的下降。公司将通过供应链优化和严格的费用管控来对冲成本端的影响，该机构预期全年净利率同比仅小幅下滑。基于更加审慎的海外收入预测和利润率假设，该机构下调了2026-28年净利润预测9-19%。
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