中金:上调阿里巴巴-W(09988)盈测 云业务增长加快 评级“跑赢行业”

智通财经
May 18

智通财经APP获悉,中金发布研报称,中金维持阿里巴巴-W(09988)“跑赢行业”评级,维持H股目标价172港元及阿里(BABA.US)美股目标价178美元。阿里3月底止第四财季收入同比增长2.9%至2,434亿元人民币(下同); 若剔除已处置业务影响,可比基准下收入同比增长达11%。期内,经调整EBITA同比下降84.4%至51亿元,低于市场预期,主因是该行在春节期间加大了对大模型投入及通义千问(Qwen)App的推广。

报告称,阿里云业务增长加快,受MaaS(模型即服务)带动,末财季云业务收入同比增长38%,其中外部客户收入增长40%。阿里云百炼MaaS平台目前的年度经常性收入(ARR)达80亿元,表现稳固,预计2026年底将达300亿元。中金预计,受代理需求及产品涨价推动,阿里6月底止2027财年第一财季云收入将同比增长42%,经调整EBITA利润率有望提升至11%。

电商业务方面,客户管理收入(CMR)在剔除会计准则调整后,在可比基准下同比增长约8%。虽然核心电商业务仍受消费疲软及监管环境压力,但淘天集团旗下快电商业务的单位经济效益(UE)正持续优化,预计2027财年季末月度UE可转正。该行下调阿里2027至2028财年收入预测3%至4%,但上调非公认会计准则净利润预测5%至9%。

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