The Morning Risk Report: Suspicious Betting in Washington Is on the Rise-and Authorities Are Playing Catch-Up By Richard Vanderford | Dow Jones Risk Journal

Good morning. For decades, the information that fueled insider trading was found on Wall Street or inside the glass offices of public companies across the country.

The rise of prediction markets has created a new temptation in Washington , where the Trump administration's fast-moving agenda is giving those privy to government information a chance to cash in on the volatility.

Novel challenge: Regulators and prosecutors are now playing catch-up to combat a batch of suspicious betting that touches various corners of the federal bureaucracy. It is a new challenge for authorities because insider-trading laws weren't designed for people who bet on the outcome of legislation, political races and even U.S. military operations.

Probes underway: Authorities in recent months have issued a number of information requests to Kalshi and Polymarket, the two biggest prediction markets, with many of them targeting wagers tied to political events or military operations in Iran and Venezuela, according to people familiar with the matter.

D.C., New York investigations: The Commodity Futures Trading Commission and the Manhattan U.S. Attorney's Office, which is led by former Wall Street lawyer and regulator Jay Clayton, are steering most of the probes. Compliance

Federal prosecutors probe BlackRock private-credit fund.

Federal prosecutors are probing a BlackRock private-credit fund

that surprised investors with a sharp write-down of its loan portfolio earlier this year, according to people familiar with the matter.

The Manhattan U.S. attorney's office is investigating the valuation practices of BlackRock's publicly traded TCP Capital fund, the people said.

Adani Group head, nephew to pay $18 million in SEC bribery case.

The head of Indian conglomerate Adani Group and his nephew agreed to pay $18 million to settle a U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission case alleging they bribed Indian officials in exchange for billions of dollars worth of contracts, Risk Journal reports

(free link).

Gautam Adani, an Indian billionaire, and his nephew Sagar will pay $6 million and $12 million, respectively, to settle SEC charges alleging the pair misled investors about their antibribery policies, the agency said in a Thursday court filing that asks a federal judge to approve the settlement.

The JPMorgan sexual-assault lawsuit was already messy. But AI is making it worse .

The legal showdown

between Elon Musk and Sam Altman's OpenAI revealed the mythmaking of artificial intelligence's seismic economic transformation. It also exposed the AI boom's underbelly.

Advocates for ethanol blended gasoline got a long-awaited win

in the House, but a bill allowing year-round sale faces a murky future in the Senate.

Canada's oil-rich province of Alberta agreed Friday to a stringent levy on carbon from its energy producers, the first of a series of conditions it has to meet before Prime Minister Mark Carney backs a new crude-carrying pipeline

to the Pacific Coast.

A Chicago landscaping contractor sued Deere

in U.S. District Court in Illinois, accusing the company of many of the same antitrust violations alleged in a recently-settled $99 million lawsuit filed by farmers.

Two senators working to protect children online are introducing bipartisan legislation

that would ban digital gambling advertisements targeting people under the age of 18, hoping to address fears that minors are getting hooked on betting through ads on social media.

AstraZeneca said it received U.S. approval

for a new hypertension treatment, getting the green light to launch a drug the U.K. pharmaceutical company expects to generate multibillion-dollar annual sales at its peak. Risk

China says it has agreed with U.S. to set up trade and investment bodies.

China said Saturday that it had agreed with the U.S. to establish bilateral boards of trade and investment, fulfilling one expected outcome of President Trump's visit to Beijing and solidifying a commercial truce

between the world's two largest economies.

China's Ministry of Commerce, in a statement published late Saturday in Beijing, also said that the U.S. had agreed to sell aircraft, aircraft engines and aircraft components to China, addressing one notable area in which the country continues to lag behind the U.S.

China's Economy Unexpectedly Weakens as Iran War Fallout Mounts

The winners and losers of oil's new world order.

The war in Iran has triggered the largest oil-supply disruption

in modern history.

The crisis in the Strait of Hormuz is forcing governments to redefine energy security for an age of geopolitical fragmentation-one in which resilience depends not only on how much oil the world produces, but where it flows, who can get it and which countries are able to absorb the shock when it is interrupted.

Nearly 15% of global oil supply has been removed from the market.

Ukraine launched its biggest strikes on Moscow

in more than a year, with dozens of drones attacking Russia's capital in an audacious raid.

Sherritt International is seeking a quick exit from its activities in Cuba

as it looks to escape the threat of being targeted in the Trump administration's efforts to force regime change on the island. The move comes after Washington at the start of the month issued an executive order expanding sanctions against Cuba.

A drone strike set off a fire near the United Arab Emirates' nuclear-power station, authorities in the Persian Gulf state said, a sign of the growing risks

as the Iran war drags on.

The Colorado River is running dangerously low , and the seven Western states that rely on it can't agree on how to share what's left.

The Long Island Rail Road strike carried into a third day

Monday, with weekday commutes looming and no sign of a resolution in the talks.

Samsung Electronics' management and union leaders resumed wage talks

on Monday in a last-ditch effort to avert a potentially disruptive strike at the world's largest memory-chip maker.

German industrial conglomerate Thyssenkrupp will close a U.S. plant

as it pushes ahead with the restructuring of its automotive technology unit. Podcast

As President Trump and Xi Jinping meet in Beijing this week, we look at whether the two countries are finding a way to manage competition, or simply preparing for a more unstable future. Also, Juliette Enser of the U.K.'s Competition and Markets Authority on the antitrust watchdog's enforcement priorities.

You can listen to new episodes every Friday on Apple Podcasts , Spotify

and Amazon .

What Else Matters The World Health Organization declared a global health emergency

over an Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of Congo and Uganda, warning that the epidemic could still be spreading undetected.

SpaceX is aiming to go public on June 12, according to people familiar with the matter, setting the stage for what is expected to be the biggest initial public offering

of all time.

Republican and Democratic lawmakers on Friday assailed the Pentagon's decision

to cancel the deployment of an armored brigade to Poland, saying the move caught them and U.S. allies by surprise.

A high-level member of an Iraqi militia with ties to Iran planned attacks on Jewish sites in major U.S. cities including Los Angeles and New York, according to charges filed Friday

in New York.

FIFA, a highhanded international organization with a reputation for skulduggery and cozy relationships with autocrats, may have finally met its match : the state of New Jersey. About Us

Follow us on X at @WSJRisk . Send tips to our reporters Max Fillion at [max.fillion@dowjones.com] and Richard Vanderford at [richard.vanderford@wsj.com].

You can also reach us by replying to any newsletter, or by emailing our editor David Smagalla at [david.smagalla@wsj.com].

This article is a text version of a Wall Street Journal newsletter published earlier today.

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

May 18, 2026 07:07 ET (11:07 GMT)

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