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【券商聚焦】开源证券维持阿里巴巴-SW(09988)“买入”评级 指云业务MaaS占比提升有望驱动利润率改善

金吾财讯
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金吾财讯 | 开源证券发布研报指，FY2026Q4阿里巴巴-SW(09988)收入2433.8亿元，YOY+3%，略低于彭博一致预期；non-GAAP净利润0.86亿元，YOY-100%，大幅低于预期。其中，中国电商集团客户管理收入YOY+1%，受商家营销计划调整及技术服务费基数影响增速放缓，闪购订单单价环比提升，UE持续改善，但经调整EBITA YOY-40%，源于闪购补贴及用户体验投入。云智能集团收入YOY+38%，外部客户收入同比增40%，经调整EBITA率9.1%，环比提升0.1pct。

核心逻辑方面，开源证券认为AI需求强劲，云业务MaaS占比提升有望驱动利润率改善，闪购持续效率优化。云智能集团份额有望持续扩大，外部收入同比增速预计未来几个季度持续加速，模型和应用ARR于2026Q2有望超过100亿元，2026年底前达300亿元，从而带动云业务利润率改善。中国电商短期仍以份额稳定为优先目标，淘天闪购带动主站流量增长，订单密度和客单价提升有望改善单均亏损并降低买量成本。

基于以上，开源证券上调FY2027/FY2028年调整后净利润预测至1087/1439亿元（前值1056/1378亿元），新增FY2029调整后净利润1894亿元，对应同比增速+79.1%/+32.5%/+31.6%，摊薄后EPS为6.1/8.2/11.1元。维持阿里巴巴-SW“买入”评级。

风险提示包括行业竞争加剧、宏观经济不及预期、组织调整不及预期、监管变动。

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