金吾财讯 | 瑞银发布油价展望报告，认为霍尔木兹海峡石油运输中断问题持续影响油价走势，短期油价将维持高位，长期则受需求与供应多重因素制约，呈现平稳回落趋势。
短期来看，因霍尔木兹海峡石油运输仍面临严重中断，瑞银预计布伦特原油价格将维持在每桶 100 美元附近；若地区冲突缓和、海峡运输恢复，油价或将回落至每桶 80 美元中段区间。同时，市场或将计入结构性更高风险溢价，主要源于地区紧张局势可能长期持续。
中期而言，瑞银预测 2027 年油价仍将获得支撑，核心原因是全球石油库存需要逐步恢复，难以快速缓解供应端的潜在压力。
长远来看，随着能效提升及电动汽车影响力持续增强，全球石油需求增长将大幅放缓，预计 2030 年前达到峰值；峰值过后，油价大概率进入漫长平稳期，而非急剧下跌。此外，非欧佩克国家供应增速放缓幅度将超过石油需求增速，全球剩余产能预计减少，这将进一步限制油价下行空间。
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