【券商聚焦】招银国际维持贝壳(BEKE)“买入”评级 指其新业务利润贡献渐入佳境

金吾财讯
May 20

金吾财讯 | 招银国际研报指,贝壳(BEKE/02423)1Q26收入同比降19.0%至人民币189亿元,对应存量房/新房GTV分别同比下降7.9%/37.2%。 Non-GAAP净利润达人民币16.1亿元,同比增长15.7%,大幅超出彭博一致预期和该机构预估的10-12亿元,主要由于:1)各板块业务贡献利润率均同比改善,得益于链家人员优化(人均买卖单量同比+26%)、新房渠道精细化管理及家装集采降本等;2)1Q26 GAAP三费同比下降22.3%至人民币32.9亿元,创3年新低,主要得益于AI驱动的营销投放精准化和人员优化、家装设计师人效提升和业务规模收缩带来薪酬下降等。上述成本费用的结构性优化推动non-GAAP净利润率同比扩张2.5个百分点至8.5%,创7个季度新高,验证了公司效率驱动转型的成效。

展望未来,管理层预计2Q26收入约人民币240亿元,non-GAAP经营利润率约12%,净利润率约9-10%;3Q/4Q26方面,管理层指引non-GAAP净利润率7-8%,该机构测算隐含FY26 non-GAAP净利润在人民币70-77亿元区间,non-GAAP净利润率在7.9-8.7%,显著高于之前指引的7%,意味着FY26盈利预测显著上修。除此之外,考虑到新业务利润贡献渐入佳境,该机构将基于SOTP的目标价上调至24.0美元(自前值23.0美元上调4%),以反映超预期的盈利改善轨迹。新目标价对应25.6 x 2026E non-GAAP PE。维持“买入”评级。

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