光伏太阳能板块反复下探 蓝思科技(06613)跌6.23%、信义光能(00968)跌5.59%

金吾财讯
May 20

金吾财讯 | 光伏太阳能板块反复下探,蓝思科技(06613)跌6.23%,信义光能(00968)跌5.59%,阳光能源(00757)跌2.86%,福耀玻璃(03606)跌2.26%,福莱特玻璃(06865)跌2.11%,新特能源(01799)跌2.07%。消息面上,东吴证券研究称,2025年光伏行业延续调整态势,主链亏损加剧、扩产放缓,光伏设备新签订单阶段性承压,但龙头设备商凭借“3421/3601”等收款模式强化现金流管理,应收账款结构集中于头部客户,信用减值充分计提,经营风险基本释放。随着落后产能出清提速、行业规范与定价机制逐步优化,供给侧结构改善信号明确,预计2026年在海外需求释放与国内市场化出清完成的背景下,设备订单有望进入修复通道,板块具备明显的周期修复弹性。五矿证券研究指,2026年,国内光伏机制电价维持低位,预计国内新增装机量相较2025年有所回调。该机构预计主要地区或因电价压力或因补贴加速退坡压力,2026年行业需求大概率负增长。而高库存、低现金压力下,头部企业并购现象已现,未来预计持续增加,市场化出清可期。同时,反内卷持续推进,预计能耗、质控等多重方式加速低效产能出清。该机构看好供给收缩下行业盈利修复带来的估值修复、以及商业航天等新兴需求催化下的投资机会。

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