穆迪:日本一季度经济数据看似稳健 但前景充满挑战

格隆汇
May 19

5月19日,穆迪分析经济学家斯特凡·安格里克表示,日本一季度GDP数据并未明确指示经济未来走向。他指出,尽管增长基础广泛,但不应过分看重这些经常被修正的初步数据。

安格里克写道,由于中东冲突导致大宗商品价格飙升,未来几个季度的前景看起来极其严峻。美国关税、贸易紧张局势以及更激烈的竞争仍然是威胁。在日本国内,实际工资增长乏力是主要拖累因素。他表示,对家庭、国防和战略投资的适度财政支持应能防止经济脱轨,但日益增多的逆风预示着今年将是困难的一年。在此背景下,日本央行今年夏天可能会再加息一次,但将难以证明进一步加息的合理性。

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