【券商聚焦】中国银河:银行基本面拐点基本确立,业绩进入改善通道

金吾财讯
May 20

金吾财讯 | 中国银河证券表示,2025年,上市银行营收同比增长1.42%,归母净利润同比增长1.41%,相比于2024年营收增速修复,净利增速放缓,营收增速反超净利润。2026Q1,这一趋势强化,营收增速提升至7.59%,归母净利润增速提升至3.0%。利息净收入对营业收入的贡献增强,息差改善为核心驱动,拨备调节利润行为减弱,预计受金融资产新规要求下金融投资拨备计提增加、口径趋严,以及银行主动加大拨备计提力度以夯实资产质量的影响。分板块看,国有行营收持续改善,其他银行拐点向上,城商行净利增速领跑,仅股份行利润表现继续承压。该机构提到,资产质量整体平稳向好,局部风险仍需关注,资本充足率有所下降:2025年末,上市银行不良贷款率同比下降2BP至1.14%,2026年3月末持平。对公资产质量持续改善,但受部分房企出险影响,样本银行对公房地产贷款不良率同比上升。零售贷款不良率仍有上升,拐点仍需观察;其中,经营贷不良风险暴露较明显。上市银行拨备覆盖率延续小幅下降,江浙成渝部分区域行仍高于400%。核心一级资本充足率也有所下降,部分中小银行接近监管红线。2026年国有大行增资延续,中小银行资本补充渠道存在拓展可能。

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