【券商聚焦】招银国际:看好险资资产配置结构优化带动投资收益稳健增长

金吾财讯
May 22

金吾财讯 | 招银国际表示,金融监管总局公布1Q26保险资金运用情况。1Q26保险公司(含人身险和财产险)资金运用余额达39.4万亿元,环比+2.5%,同比+12.9%,得益于保费收入稳健增长(1Q26: +6.3%)。截至1Q26末,保险行业总资产和净资产较年初+2.8%/+3.2%,较好地反映了险资资金运用余额的增长趋势。人身险和财产险公司1Q26保险资金运用余额分别为35.6万亿元/2.5万亿元,占比90.1%/6.3%,较年初+2.6%/+2.3%。从资产配置角度看,1Q26保险资金运用呈现三大趋势:1)核心权益占比延续高位至15.5%,其中权益基金增幅超越股票,环比+5%至2.1万亿元,占比5.4%,环比+0.1pct,体现险资增配权益基金的意愿回暖;股票余额环比+2.7%至3.8万亿元,占比10.1%,环比持平。长期股权投资环比+5%至2.98万亿元,占比7.8%,环比+0.2pct,主要由人身险公司增配长股投资产带动,反映人身险公司对提升优质股权资产配置以获取稳健投资收益的重视。1Q26保险公司总权益投资敞口达23.4%,环比+0.4pct。2)债券持续成为险资大类资产配置的“压舱石”,1Q26保险行业债券配置规模达19.2万亿元,占比50.5%,较年初+0.1pct;其中人身险和财产险公司债券配置环比+2.7%/+3.2%,体现了在年初利率高点择时配置的结果。3)银行存款和其他(含非标)资产的增幅及占比较年初下行,1Q26银行存款环比+1.2%至3.1万亿元,增速环比-4.9pct,占比8.1%,较年初-0.1pct,预计主要受银行存款利率持续下行的影响。其他资产环比+0.8%至6.86万亿元,增速环比-1.7pct,占比18%,较年初-0.4pct,主要受存量非标到期和新增优质非标资产欠缺的影响。偿付能力充足率方面,寿险公司核心偿付能力充足率1Q26环比回升3.1个百分点至118.1%,部分缓解市场对保险公司加仓二级权益导致资本消耗过快的担忧。1Q26行业寿险核心偿付能力充足率回升,预计主要受头部寿险公司资产重分类和集团对子公司增资的正向带动(如中国人寿、平安人寿),中小型险企的核心偿付能力充足率在权益加仓的背景下或仍面临较大压力。该机构指,当前板块交易于0.3-0.6倍FY26E P/EV和0.6-1.1x FY26 P/B, 股息率3%-7%。推荐买入中国平安(02318/601318 CH,目标价:86港元/人民币75元)、中国人寿(02628,目标价:34港元)和中国财险(02382,目标价:20港元)。该机构看好险资资产配置结构优化带动投资收益稳健增长,驱动估值修复的上行空间,维持行业“优于大市”评级。

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