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【券商聚焦】国金证券看好禾赛(HSAI)：物理AI金铲子，出海奔驰进行时

金吾财讯
May 21

金吾财讯 | 国金证券发研报指，禾赛(HSAI)2026年一季度业绩报告超预期，物理AI年内收入预计过亿，机器人下游需求饱满。公司1Q26激光雷达实现42m的经营利润(GAAP18m)；新业务SGI预计从2Q26开始贡献收入，全年预计贡献收入1亿元。出货量超指引及市场预期，1Q激光雷达出货量达47.2万颗，其中ADAS出货量达35.3万颗，Robotics11.8万颗，机器人条线超预期出货贡献较多。同时，公司官宣海外定点禾赛定点梅赛德斯-奔驰L3级车型在欧洲及中国市场的车型项目，所需产能将由公司新落成的泰国“伽利略”制造中心提供保障。

该行表示，尽管ASP通缩进行时，毛利率略有承压，但Robotics-下一代通用传感器的机会无处不在。重申强调激光视觉有望接棒摄像头成为下一代通用传感器，割草机是下一个ADAS，Robovan是下一个割草机，智慧交通有可能塑造一个欧美小海康的机会。Kosmo未来是3D内容时代的铲子，现在是物理AI数采的铲子。该行续指，根据2026年一季度情况，预测公司2026~2028年营业收入分别为45.97/67.07/98.80亿元，归母净利润分别为6.02/11.59/21.77亿元。考虑到公司在物理AI领域的领先地位和海外市场的拓展，维持“买入”评级。尽管智驾技术路线改变、智驾渗透率提升不及预期、激光雷达降本速度不及预期以及国际局势影响海外销售等风险因素存在，但公司长期增长潜力依然看好。

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