Tiger Brokers

乳制品股普跌 现代牧业(01117)跌5%、优然牧业(09858)跌4.72%

金吾财讯
May 22

金吾财讯 | 乳制品股普跌，现代牧业(01117)跌5.00%，优然牧业(09858)跌4.72%，蒙牛乳业(02319)跌3.95%，原生态牧业(01431)跌1.67%，中国飞鹤(06186)跌1.26%。

华源证券表示，2025年，伊利、蒙牛收入承压但净利率提升，利润增长良好；新乳业受益低温业务双位数增长，收入稳健、净利率持续上行。该行认为净利率改善的共性在于资产减值损失大幅减少：原奶供需矛盾缓解后，喷粉减值（存货跌价损失）显著下降，生物资产减值同步减少，伊利商誉及信用减值亦有明显收窄。2026年Q1，伊利液体乳收入增速较2025年转正，印证行业复苏趋势。预计在原奶价格企稳回升的背景下，头部乳企份额将持续修复。

开源证券表示，国内外供给同步趋紧，肉牛需求景气大周期上行供给端，我国牛存栏持续探底，降至2020年以来低点。2026Q1我国肉牛出栏1175万头，同比-3.2%，牛肉产量189万吨，同比-1.4%，供给收缩信号逐步显现。需求端，我国牛肉消费趋势向上，且牛肉价格带显著高于猪鸡肉，替代效应有限。进口端，全球牛肉供需收缩、库存消耗，叠加国内进口牛肉量价齐升及2026年起进口牛肉保障措施落地，国内牛肉供给约束或进一步强化，支撑牛肉价格中枢上移。当前牛周期处于上行阶段，建议积极配置肉牛产业链上市公司。

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