金吾财讯 | 港股铜业股午后集体扬升，截至发稿，洛阳铝业(03993)涨6.34%，中国有色矿业(01258)涨6.25%，五矿资源(01208)涨4.88%，紫金矿业(02899)涨4.31%，江西铜业股份(00358)涨4.03%，中国黄金国际(02099)涨3.68%，万国黄金集团(03939)涨1.08%。消息面上，据外媒周五（5月22日）报道，一项内部审计发现智利国家铜业公司(Codelco)将近2.7万吨铜错误归类为成品，导致其2025年铜产量实际跌至1998年以来最低水平，进一步动摇了这家全球最大铜矿商之一的复苏叙事。与此同时，Codelco的供应困境是也推动全球铜价接近历史高位的因素之一。中信证券近日研究亦表示，随着自由港再度推迟印尼项目复产进度并全面下调2026-27年产量指引，全球主要铜矿企业2026年产量预期已正式陷入下滑，且后续极端天气的潜在影响或带来供给扰动的扩大化。中信证券预计近期国内超预期去库所彰显坚实的供需逻辑以及宏观压制减弱将促使2Q26铜价站稳13000美元/吨，而供需预期差下铜价有望冲击前高。该机构看好盈利弹性与估值弹性共振的铜板块配置机遇。
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