金吾财讯 | 中信建投研究认为，短期来看，流动性挤兑后市场将进入重新定价阶段，黄金确定性的右侧信号仍在于紧缩预期的纠偏。2026年Q1黄金流动性冲击，本质上是全球宏观体系在“高通胀、高杠杆、高冲突”极端环境下的压力测试。避险资产在流动性枯竭面前的短暂脆弱，但这并不意味着黄金底层逻辑的破裂。若中东局势失控已不是基准情形，即使油价中枢已面临系统性的上移，一旦紧缩预期出现纠偏，黄金在后续仍将逐步过渡到对于通胀的定价。中长期视角下，全球地缘博弈已不再是偶然的“黑天鹅”，而是全球产业链与货币体系从“效率优先”转向“安全优先”的结构性注脚，黄金仍将持续提供独立于美债实际收益率的溢价空间。美伊局势演变的深远影响并不在于短期的油价波动，而在于全球供应链的区域化与防御性冗余。在这种环境下，随着全球金融结算体系的同步分裂（如替代性支付系统的崛起），金价中枢仍将持续受益于货币体系从“美元单极”转向“储备多元”的信用坍缩周期。
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