金吾财讯 | 中信证券表示，几内亚政府计划6月敲定铝土矿调节政策，铝土矿供给约束风险升温，或将推动铝土矿和氧化铝价格企稳，利于具备较高铝土矿和氧化铝自给率的高韧性铝企。供给方面，据路透社，3-4月海湾地区铝产量降至十多年以来最低水平，年化产量下降200万吨，LME库存降至34万吨的接近历史新低水平。即便中东局势缓和背景下，以EGA为主的项目复产仍需较长时间，供应短缺成为高确定性事件。需求方面，据Mysteel，国内电解铝和铝棒显性库存去库加速，近两周库存降幅均达5%，体现需求景气提升。该机构预计2026-27年全球供需平衡为240/168万吨缺口（Q2预测93/87万吨缺口），2026年电解铝均价将达25000元/吨。电解铝国内去库提速，海外短缺风险延续，继续推荐铝板块低位布局机会。重点看好强资源、高增长、高股息投资主线。
Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.