法国兴业银行策略师表示，美国国债看起来比美股更具吸引力，收益率走高对股市构成风险。

　　他们表示，当10年期国债收益率超过4.5%时，股票收益与债券收益率变幅之间将转为强烈负相关。

　　美国股权风险溢价正接近3%这一关键阈值，历史上该水平往往预示着股市即将出现回调。

　　他们写道：“美股吸收债券收益率进一步走高的能力似乎有限”。

　　盈利预期上调不足以抵消股价上涨和债券收益率走高的影响。

　　策略师指出，2026年大多数市场的股本成本并未下降。股价上涨的推动因素是盈利增长，而非估值倍数走高。

 

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