金吾财讯 | 华泰证券表示，2026年5月22日山西长治沁源县未上市民营煤炭公司通洲集团留神峪煤矿发生井下瓦斯爆炸。截至5月23日造成90人遇难，是2009年黑龙江鹤岗新兴煤矿事故以来最严重的矿难。目前事故初步调查反映出“隐蔽工作面”、“下井作业人数不清”等问题，我们认为或将引发安全生产监管升级，对煤炭产量产生影响，叠加今年本已偏紧的煤炭供需平衡，推动煤价加速上行。复盘2020-2025的11起特重大事故，参考秦皇岛5500现货价格，事故发生后1月/3月/1年煤价平均变动幅度为+7.30%/+2.21%/+23.74%（1年内涨幅均值较大主要受21-22年煤价高涨拉高均值）。整体来看，历史重大煤炭事故通常会对煤价形成短期情绪与供应扰动催化，但长期来看煤价终将回归供需基本面。
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