中信建投证券策略分析师认为,2026年下半年A股整体“拔估值”难度将有所提升,全A指数上涨斜率或较此前放缓,市场将更多呈现结构性行情特征。当前AI算力主线远未到达全面泡沫化的阶段,行情不会仅因估值恐高而撤退。行业布局方面,算力仍是景气主线,受益最大板块为光通信、存储芯片;受益于 AI 算力中心配储需求的爆发式增长,锂电行业迎来全新的结构性增量需求,其产业链代表性股票一季度业绩表现突出,板块向上动能不断延伸至整条产业链;并且国内近期的六张网政策发布下,基建、电网建设景气显著受益。创新药板块的景气度从业绩端与交易端获得双重确认,BD 合作常态化推进,龙头企业业绩保持高增长,持续关注小分子赛道;石油天然气制造是上游最确定性受益方向,与全球性的油气供给困难不同的是,在“富煤贫油少气”的资源禀赋下,我国煤炭供给充足,煤炭构成能源安全压舱石。
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