The latest Market Talks covering Commodities. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.

1201 ET - Crude prices have failed to push significantly higher since the war in Iran began largely because China has reduced its imports, effectively freeing up supply for other buyers, says Michelle Brouhard from Kpler. China, she says, is highly opportunistic: When prices rise too far, it reduces imports, draws down inventories, and waits for cheaper levels. "China has took its foot off at the gas on imports," the head of policy and geopolitical risk says. "So I think these prices just got high enough that they thought we'll just draw down our inventories." According to Brouhard, based on current global inventory levels, the fair value for oil would be much higher, around $130-$140 a barrel. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)

1015 ET - Oil futures are lower on optimism about a U.S.-Iran agreement that could reopen the Strait of Hormuz to tanker traffic, but the market remains cautious. "With the two sides still publicly contradicting each other on basic facts, the distance to a binding agreement is considerable," Ahmad Assiri of Pepperstone says in a note. For energy markets, the main concern is uncertainty about the strait. "A verified deal delivers meaningful downside in crude; a breakdown or simply a prolonged stalemate keeps the geopolitical risk premium firmly embedded." WTI is down 5.1% at $91.67 a barrel. Brent falls 4.9% to $98.46. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

0858 ET - The bulk of residents in Canada's oil-rich province of Alberta want to remain part of Canada, says one of the first polls to emerge since Alberta Premier Danielle Smith set Oct. 19 as a date for a referendum on the jurisdiction's future within the country. Angus Reid Institute says 61% of Albertans would choose to remain in Canada, while 36% indicate they believe Smith should begin the process to hold a binding referendum on separation from Canada. Smith unveiled the planned vote last week, under pressure from the wing of her United Conservative Party that either supports separation or is sympathetic to the cause. Over half of respondents, 51%, say the question to be posed on the Oct. 19 ballot -- essentially, a referendum-on-a-referendum -- is too confusing. (paul.vieira@wsj.com, @paulvieira)

0610 ET - Palm oil closed lower on weaker crude oil prices, says David Ng, a trader at Kuala Lumpur-based Iceberg X. Expectations for slower demand for palm oil in the coming weeks are also adding pressure on prices, he adds. Ng sees support at 4,400 ringgit a ton and resistance at 4,580 ringgit a ton. The Bursa Malaysia Derivatives contract for June delivery fell 14 ringgit to 4,472 ringgit a ton. (jiahui.huang@wsj.com; @ivy_jiahuihuang)

0533 ET - India raising import taxes on gold will not curb local demand, Charles Gave of Gavekal Research writes in a note. The move has eroded the value of the rupee against gold, he notes, adding that this will instead encourage locals to buy more gold as savings. The government needs to mobilize India's gold, but "people who have long saved in gold will never abandon gold unless they are paid richly to do so," Gave adds. Gold-linked bonds may support government funding better through principal and interest payments, while maintaining gold levels, Gave says. (kimberley.kao@wsj.com)

0251 ET - Gold prices rise on a weaker dollar and optimism that a potential breakthrough in U.S.-Iran peace negotiations could improve the inflation outlook. In early European trading, futures in New York are up 0.8% to $4,558 a troy ounce, while the U.S. dollar index slips 0.2% to 99.01, making dollar-denominated commodities cheaper for overseas buyers. Hopes for a deal that could reopen the Strait of Hormuz also pushed crude oil prices sharply lower, with Brent falling more than 5%. The drop has eased concerns that higher energy costs could reignite inflation and pressure the global economy. Still, gains in gold might remain limited. U.S. consumer confidence weakened sharply in May, while expectations that the Federal Reserve could raise interest rates continue to pressure non-yielding assets. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)

0248 ET - The dollar falls to a one-week low against a basket of currencies as oil prices drop on prospects of a deal between the U.S. and Iran. A U.S. official said over the weekend that an agreement in principle could lead to the crucial Strait of Hormuz being reopened. However, uncertainty remains. President Trump said Sunday that he was in no rush to complete a deal with Iran and that both sides had to "take their time and get it right." The DXY dollar index falls 0.2% to a low of 98.951. (jessica.fleetham@wsj.com)

2345 ET - Indonesia's plans to centralize exports of key commodities through a state-owned entity have mixed implications for commodity exporters and economic sentiment, UOB Kay Hian analysts say in a note. "The details and execution play an important factor which can change the narrative from a negative to a positive," they add. Tighter supervision of exports could improve transparency, fiscal revenue, long-term economic policy decisions and reported earnings. However, there could also be additional costs, margin pressure and operational uncertainty for companies, depending on how Indonesia implement the plans. (amanda.lee@wsj.com)

2243 ET - Palm oil prices decline in Asian trading, dragged by lower crude oil prices, AmInvestment Bank says in a note. Declines in crude tend to weigh on demand for palm oil as a biofuel. Technical analysis suggests crude palm oil futures remain in bearish territory, while neutral palm oil fundamentals may continue to pressure prices, it adds. AmInvestment Bank pegs resistance at 4,515 ringgit a ton and support at 4,453 ringgit a ton. The Bursa Malaysia Derivatives contract for August delivery is 8 ringgit lower at 4,478 ringgit a ton. (yingxian.wong@wsj.com)

2216 ET - Iron ore rises in Asian trade. Global crude steel output fell in April, but less sharply than in March as the pace of contraction in China's steel output eased, says Commonwealth Bank of Australia's Vivek Dhar in a note. A steeper drop in March was likely due to policy-driven steel production cuts, the analyst says. However, steel-mill margins in China remain under pressure, reflecting headwinds facing the country's infrastructure and property construction activity, which account for a large part of China's steel consumption, he adds. The most-traded iron-ore contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange is 0.7% higher at 798.00 yuan a metric ton. (megan.cheah@wsj.com)

2133 ET - Nickel rises in Asian trading, with the three-month contract on the London Metal Exchange 0.8% higher at $18,880 a ton. The metal has led gains among base metals, supported by improving investor risk appetite, ANZ Research analysts say in a note. Prices are also boosted by worries over further supply cuts in Indonesia. Meanwhile, Indonesian officials have announced plans to tighten controls over commodity exports, which ANZ notes have led to market disruptions in the past. (jason.chau@wsj.com)

2127 ET - The pace of contraction in China's steel output eased in April despite steel-mill margins there falling deeper into negative territory, Commonwealth Bank of Australia analyst Vivek Dhar says. He reckons that likely reflects policy-driven steel production cuts in March, "to ensure blue skies for China's 'Two Sessions' policy meetings." Falling margins would typically mean more pressure to reduce steel output, Dhar notes. China's steel output declined 2.8% on-year in April, compared with a 6.3% fall in March. Dhar says Chinese steelmaking margins have been hurt by headwinds facing its infrastructure and property construction sectors. Steel-product exports have also reduced. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

May 25, 2026 16:15 ET (20:15 GMT)

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