金吾财讯 | 香港花旗银行表示，2026年初，市场普遍预期大多数主要央行将减息。 然而，这一共识预期正在消退。市场已转向预期大多数发达市场的央行将收紧货币政策，或至少延长利率不变的时间。美联储因其双重使命而稍有不同，但即使如此，市场对美国利率的预期亦有明显变化。当前，三重结构性力量正推高债券收益率：首先，各央行面临持续上升且广泛扩散的通胀压力，限制其放宽货币政策的空间。其次，各主要国家政府为应对地缘政治不稳、供应链安全需要及国防需求，均持续增加财政支出。第三，全球经济在过去6年经历三次重大挑战，导致各国政府持续增加财政支持，使政府开支维持在高位。上述因素对债券收益率形成持续的上行压力。能源供应中断则加剧债券收益率上行压力。即使霍尔木兹海峡明日重开，要恢复目前每日约1,400万桶的受阻石油供应可能也需时数月。船舶保险成本、库存重建和物流瓶颈等问题同样无法迅速解决。该行维持低配长久期债券，并在冲突开始时将新兴市场债券转为短期美国债券，预期将维持该投资策略。
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