猪肉概念多股走高 德康农牧(02419)涨6.73%、牧原股份(02714)涨2.04%

金吾财讯
Jun 01

金吾财讯 | 猪肉概念多股走高,截至发稿,惠生国际(01340)涨7.27%,德康农牧(02419)涨6.73%,中粮家佳康(01610)涨3.42%,牧原股份(02714)涨2.04%,万洲国际(00288)涨1.10%。消息面上,长城证券研究认为,历史数据显示,6月为年内供需格局转换的关键节点,猪价在此前后完成“由跌转涨”的转换。而该月季节性拐点临近,叠加前期产能持续去化效果预计下半年逐步显现,供给端压力有望趋势性缓解。但考虑到供给偏高、终端消费复苏偏弱等因素,猪价反弹幅度预计有限,大概率呈现底部企稳、缓慢修复的走势,周期反转信号仍在积累中。建议重点关注具备成本优势、资金状况良好、产能去化进展领先的龙头企业,同时关注端午备货及冻品去库对短期价格的催化作用。后续需持续跟踪能繁母猪存栏去化进度、出栏均重变化及终端消费回暖节奏。国盛证券则表示,5月赤道中东太平洋海温进入厄尔尼诺状态,国家气候中心预计,夏秋季将发展成为一次中等及以上强度的厄尔尼诺事件,秋冬季达到峰值,发生强厄尔尼诺事件的概率正在增大,并可能持续至明年春季。建议关注强厄尔尼诺预期下农产品大宗产品的价格催化带来相应的投资机会。其中,生猪养殖板块,本周全国瘦肉型肉猪出栏价9.44元/kg,较上周下跌0.3%,本周猪肉平均批发价14.86元/kg,较上周上涨0.4%。当前估值位于相对低位,可关注估值与成本性价比凸显的龙头及低成本高成长标的。

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