【特约大V】邓声兴:鹰派信号压制风险偏好,港股料承压震荡

金吾财讯
Jun 01

金吾财讯 | 恒指周五(29日)收市报25182点,升176点或0.7%。大市全日成交4620亿元。国指升61点或0.7%,报8425点。科指跑输,跌4点或0.1%,报4884点;重磅科网股个别发展,阿里巴巴(09988)跌0.7%,报120.9元;腾讯(00700)升0.5%,报427.2元;戴尔季绩及指引远胜预期,刺激联想(00992)股价大涨,收升22%,报24元,是全日最省镜蓝筹。舜宇光学(02382)全日升13.8%,报83.8元,是表现第二佳蓝筹。天风国际证券分析师郭明𫓹发文称,最新的供应链调查显示,舜宇光学迎来数个新正向趋势。泡泡玛特(09992)全日升7.4%,报173.4元,董事长兼首席执行官王宁誓做世界级企业。信达生物(01801)全日升11.4%,报83.35元,信达辉瑞达成全球战略合作,加速创新肿瘤药物开发。3D打印公司创想三维(03388)首日挂牌,全日报22.8元,较招股价18.8元,升21.3%。道指周五(29日)收市报51032点,升363点或0.72%。标指涨0.22%,报7580点;纳指升0.2%,报26972点;重磅股个别发展,微软收市股价上扬5.5%,IBM炒高12.7%,为升幅最大道指成份股;辉达(Nvidia)转挫1.4%,特斯拉(Tesla)亦跌1.4%,Alphabet跌2.5%,Meta回吐0.4%。戴尔(Dell)大幅上调收入预测,股价爆升32.8%;另边厢,Gap下调收入预测,American Eagle与美国性感女星Sydney Sweeney联乘产品销情逊色,股价分别插水15.4%和11.8%。沃尔玛滑落2.7%,为表现最差道指成份股。亚太股市今早(1日)个别走,日经225指数现时报66969点,升639点或0.96%。南韩综合指数现时报8741点,升265点或3.14%。鹰派信号压制风险偏好,港股料承压震荡。德昌电机控股(00179)德昌电机控股2025/26全年业绩营业收入248.87亿元,同比增涨0.08%,归母净利润13.78亿元,同比下跌18.63%,盈利下滑主要受非现金无形资产减值及投资公允价值不利变动等一次性因素拖累,核心经营性收益占利润总额比例超过九成,主业盈利能力未受实质侵蚀,经营性现金流强劲,资本结构保守,无债务压力,财务韧性支撑长期价值。汽车产品组别贡献总营收84.23%,其核心增长动力来自电动车电池冷却系统、电动助力转向电机等高附加值产品,传统燃油车部件正被电动化方案替代,集团已实现向电动车核心系统供应商的结构性转型。更值得关注的是,德昌电机正依托“汽车主业稳基+新兴业务崛起”的双轮驱动战略重塑增长逻辑——在人形机器人领域,集团与上海机电合资打造关节模组平台,涵盖腰部、胯部、膝部关节及灵巧手执行器,已进入小批量出货阶段;在固体氧化物燃料电池(SOFC)领域,集团通过整合粉末冶金公司Stackpole,在SOFC连接件市场深入布局并配套头部下游客户,伴随全球AIDC电力短缺加剧,SOFC响应快、效率高的优势正获认可,有望在AIDC主电源领域迎来渗透率“奇点”;同时集团推出DCP系列液冷泵,专为AI服务器架构打造,把握液冷渗透率从2024年14%跃升至2030年87%的市场机遇。总括而言,机器人、SOFC、液冷三大新业务正迅速增长,投资者后续可观察新业务从概念走向规模化兑现。目标价$32,止蚀价$23(笔者为证监会持牌人士及笔者未持有上述股份)

作者:香港股票分析师协会主席邓声兴博士

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