大行评级丨大摩:预期记忆体供应紧张最少持续两至三年,美光目标价看高至1050美元

中金财经
Jun 03

  摩根士丹利发表报告,上调美光闪迪收入及盈利预测,将美光目标价由520美元大幅上调至1050美元,闪迪目标价由1100美元上调至1750美元,评级同为“增持”。大摩称,记忆体芯片股在2025年表现强劲,并在2026年继续引领市场,但该行认为这波强劲表现尚未结束。大摩称,记忆体短缺并无快速解决方案。这将推动记忆体供应紧张的状况持续两至三年(或更长)。短缺在DRAM中最为严峻,但NAND Flash亦然。   该行认为两者股价可继续跑赢大市,因为基于近期预测的倍数仍然合理(两者2027财年预估市盈率均低于10倍),且大规模股票回购可能于2027年启动、专用AI记忆体合约价格谈判走高,以及闪迪在数据中心市场的渗透率提高。在此背景下,市场对新的多年期供应协议关注甚多,该行认为长期协议应被视为“高增长持续更久”前景的结果而非原因,并且证明了超大型企业有意在未来几年继续扩大记忆体采购,并视承诺为确保供应的必要条件。该行认为市场将奖励这种隐含的持续性,但该行最关注的仍是供需状况。   

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