金吾财讯 | 国投证券研究认为，光伏行业需求退潮供给开启出清。展望我国光伏装机规模，2030年之前仍有望年新增装机量保持200GW以上，而海外光伏市场也呈现成熟市场增速放缓与新兴市场快速崛起的分化交织，全球需求处于增速放缓阶段。历经两年的的行业产能过剩格局后，在市场压力与政策预期推动下，供给侧已有望开启逐步的产能出清。2026年光伏行业的主旋律是展望新兴应用场景与持续革新技术工艺，在需求侧较为疲软的前提下，产业端不断探索降本增效的技术升级，以及布局未来新应用场景的技术积累。在产业端自律减产与产业链价格企稳难升的产业周期底部，新技术与工艺将成为光伏板块投资的主要机会，只有强大的技术护城河才有望支撑企业价值，并在行业拐点来临时迎来超额收益。
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