Gold price is squeezed between 50 and 200 DMA, but 2025 drivers will return stronger once Iran war recedes – Saxo Bank’s Hansen

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Jun 02

(Kitco News) – Gold prices declined in May, as the Iran conflict supported yields and the dollar while reducing expectations for rate cuts, but debt concerns, de-dollarization, sticky inflation and ...

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dollar while reducing expectations for rate cuts, but debt concerns, de-dollarization, sticky inflation and ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2026-06-02/gold-price-squeezed-between-50-and-200-dma-2025-drivers-will-return\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"PHYS","symbol_name":"Sprott Physical Gold 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Fund"},"translate_title":"金价被挤压在50至200日均线之间，但一旦伊朗战争消退，2025年的驱动因素将会更加强劲——盛宝银行的汉森","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"DBC":0.9,"BAR":0.9,"GLDM":0.9,"GDXJ":0.9,"GDXU":0.9,"BEGS":0.9,"PHYS":0.9,"CEF":0.9,"JDST":0.9,"PICK":0.9,"RING":0.9,"SGOL":0.9,"IGLD":0.6,"USG":0.9,"1OZmain":0.9,"FGDL":0.9,"GLL":0.9,"GOLY":0.9,"GDX":0.9,"IAU":0.9,"BTGD":0.9,"GLTR":0.9,"OUNZ":0.9,"XME":0.9,"AAAU":0.9,"DULL":0.9,"DUST":0.9,"GBUG":0.9,"IAUI":0.9,"SHNY":0.9,"UGL":0.9,"GLD":0.6,"YGLD":0.6,"DGZ":0.6,"DMA":1.5,"JNUG":0.9,"GLDY":0.6,"KGLD":0.6,"GOAU":0.9,"BGLD":0.6,"SGDM":0.9,"GDXY":0.9,"UYM":0.9,"DGP":0.9,"GDXD":0.9,"IAUM":0.9,"DZZ":0.9},"content_text":"(Kitco News) – Gold prices declined in May, as the Iran conflict supported yields and the dollar while reducing expectations for rate cuts, but debt concerns, de-dollarization, sticky inflation and steady central bank demand remain key pillars of support for gold, the latter despite some temporary selling linked to energy-related pressures., according to Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank.In a new update published Monday, Hansen noted that gold prices slid for a third consecutive month in May. “Despite the recent pullback, bullion remains up 5% so far in 2026, 36% over the past year and 91% over the last two years,” he pointed out.He said that the ongoing disruption of the Strait of Hormuz has kept oil, gas, and refined fuel prices elevated, creating headwinds for the yellow metal.“Rather than triggering a classic flight to safety, higher energy prices have fuelled inflation concerns, pushed bond yields higher, strengthened the US dollar, and reduced expectations for additional Federal Reserve rate cuts,” he said. “Together, these developments have created a significant headwind for a non-yielding asset such as gold.”Gold’s price correction also coincided with equity markets surging to all-time highs, even as some central banks were forced to liquidate part of their gold reserves to support their currencies or offset higher energy costs.“The recent setback once again highlights an important distinction often overlooked by investors,” Hansen said. “Gold is widely regarded as an inflation hedge, but the nature of the inflation shock matters.”“Historically, gold performs best during periods of financial stress or economic weakness when inflation concerns are accompanied by falling real yields and a weakening dollar,” he explained. “The current situation is different. A supply-driven energy shock pushes inflation higher while simultaneously supporting yields and the dollar. This combination can temporarily undermine gold's appeal despite rising consumer prices.”Hansen said that precious metals investors are very focused on interest rate expectations right now, noting that gold has struggled as yields have risen and rate cut probabilities have dropped.“However, while interest rate expectations have weighed on sentiment, they are unlikely to remain the dominant driver indefinitely,” he said. “Once the geopolitical situation stabilises and the energy shock begins to fade, we expect investors to refocus on the structural themes that have underpinned the bull market in gold over recent years.”Chief among these, Hansen said, is central bank demand. “While some countries have recently reduced holdings, these sales appear largely tactical rather than strategic,” he said. “The broader trend of reserve diversification remains firmly intact, particularly among emerging-market central banks that continue to hold relatively small allocations to gold compared with developed economies.”And the Russia-Ukraine and U.S.-Iran conflicts have only reinforced the strategic case for holding gold. “Concerns about sanctions risk, reserve diversification, fiscal sustainability, and long-term currency debasement continue to encourage central banks to reduce reliance on traditional reserve assets,” he added. “We therefore expect central banks to remain net buyers over the coming year.”Another important pillar of support is Chinese gold demand. “While investor participation has fluctuated alongside broader market sentiment, the longer-term desire among Chinese investors to diversify savings away from property and traditional financial assets continues to support bullion demand,” Hansen said. “China's central bank increased its gold reserves in April for the sixth consecutive month, likely helping drive a tripling of total gold imports via Hong Kong to 58.6 metric tons.”Finally, concerns about ballooning fiscal debt and deficits across major economies continue to underline the case for hard assets like gold. “Government borrowing levels remain elevated, while the investment requirements associated with electrification, artificial intelligence, energy security, and climate adaptation are likely to keep upward pressure on commodity demand and long-term inflation expectations,” he said.Turning to the technical picture, Hansen said that gold has continued to find support near its 200-day moving average, currently near $4,400 per ounce. “The market has tested this level twice during the recent correction and each time attracted renewed buying interest,” he said. “While this does not eliminate the risk of further short-term weakness, it does suggest that long-term investors remain active beneath the market.”“For now, many investors appear content to wait for greater clarity regarding the Middle East conflict before increasing exposure,” Hansen concluded. “However, once attention shifts away from the daily fluctuations in energy prices and geopolitical headlines, we believe the market will once again focus on the structural drivers that helped underpin prices in recent years.”“As a result, we maintain our constructive long-term outlook in the years ahead especially if the trends of reserve diversification, fiscal expansion, and de-dollarisation continue to gather momentum.”","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":false,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"}}}