金吾财讯 | 蒙牛乳业(02319)逆市上扬，报16.23元，涨2.14%。
摩根士丹利发布研报，预期蒙牛乳业 未来 15 天内股价将绝对值上涨，概率约 70%-80%。该行维持液态奶 2026 年恢复增长判断，预计整体销售额增 5.5%，对应 2026 年预测市盈率约 11.2 倍，评级 “增持”，目标价 20 港元。
研报指出，蒙牛近期股价回落提升短期估值吸引力，年初至今销售趋势符合稳定常温奶 (UHT milk) 并实现增长的目标，其他品类增速更快。受日历效应及去年 5 月特仑苏价格变动基数影响，今年 5 月 comparisons 承压，但渠道检查显示液态奶仍正增长，惟较 4 月放缓。
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