摩根士丹利分析师约瑟夫・摩尔团队更新英伟达评级报告：当前英伟达AI芯片市占率约85%，近两年来份额未见流失。摩尔在研报中写道：Vera Rubin平台是英伟达维系超高市场份额的核心抓手。

　　分析师表示，英伟达自研CPU并非为填补行业CPU缺货缺口，产品从底层架构就是面向AI算力负载定制。

　　英伟达给出本年度服务器CPU营收200亿美元指引，该数值对标行业头部厂商，发布之初市场普遍存疑；但机构调研头部大客户后确认，该产品线潜在出货体量空间庞大。

　　大摩维持英伟达增持（买入）评级，目标价288美元，定价逻辑为2027年加权每股收益13.08美元、对应22倍市盈率。

　　摩尔认为，对标AMD、博通、英特尔等同赛道算力芯片企业，英伟达当前估值存在折价；但受超高市占率与高毛利率约束，短期内估值进一步抬升空间有限。

　　英伟达潜在下行风险

1. AI终端需求不及预期，客户大幅削减GPU采购订单；
2. AMD成长为具备实质竞争力的GPU竞品；
3. 除谷歌以外的云厂商自研对标硬件，形成有效竞争。

　　潜在上行催化

1. 大模型训练与推理需求持续高增，拉动数据中心业务营收；
2. 搭载独显AI PC渗透率快速提升，消费游戏业务收入加速增长。

海量资讯、精准解读，尽在新浪财经APP

责任编辑：陈钰嘉

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.