金吾财讯 | TD Cowen上调GLP-1药物赛道远期市场预期，预计2030年全球GLP-1药物销售额将达1500亿美元，较此前1390亿美元的预测上调8%，较早年1010亿美元预期大幅抬升。该统计覆盖2型糖尿病与肥胖症两大核心适应症，礼来(LLY)与诺和诺德(NVO)仍将持续主导全球市场。
需求端增量是赛道核心支撑，该机构预计2030年全球受益患者规模将从4600万增至5900万，用药需求扩容可对冲行业降价带来的营收压力。今年落地的口服GLP-1制剂商业化潜力突出，预计2030年有望占据全球总销售额的14%。赛道竞争持续升温，多家药企通过授权合作、并购布局管线，辉瑞(PFE)、安进(AMGN)等多家企业均在研发肥胖症治疗药物，角逐后续获批增量份额。
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