金吾财讯 | 中信证券表示，严监管反内卷背景下，头部险企凭借投资能力与服务能力的双重壁垒，处于行业景气向上的重大机遇期，预计2026年二季度保险股业绩亮眼，处于长期机遇期中的重要配置窗口。2026年一季度，尽管3月股市出现调整，中国太保与新华保险仍实现净利润正增长，净资产增速分别达5.8%与10.8%，显著领先同业，验证了可持续权益投资能力对保单收益率及分红实现率的保障作用。资产端，债券收益率曲线陡峭化带来无风险配置机会，股市调整提供高股息资产的加仓窗口；负债端，银保市场与高客市场构成核心增量，头部险企资产负债表扩张具有高盈利确定性。未来三到五年，投资能力将形成市场口碑并拉动保单销售，而养老、医疗、护理等低频刚需服务将成为大型险企真实的核心竞争力与准公用事业壁垒。随着二季度创业板大涨，沪深300企稳向上，预计二季度险资业绩表现亮眼。重点推荐头部险企，以及受益香港保险市场的标的和可能受益带病体保险发展的标的。
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