金吾财讯 | “锂业双雄”受压，天齐锂业(09696)跌2.58%，赣锋锂业(01772)跌2.26%。摩通发表报告指，6月3日碳酸锂期货下跌4%至每吨16.7万元人民币，中国锂业股下跌0%至2%。受广期所碳酸锂仓单数量创历史新高影响，市场情绪走弱。该行指近期正面催化剂，例如江西锂云母矿山停产、津巴布韦出口管制已基本兑现，认为风险偏向不利消息，例如海外矿山重启、枧下窝突然复产，或隐形锂库存高于预期。虽然下游需求依然稳固，但该行基于更高的长期锂价假设，上调天齐锂业和赣锋锂业2026至2028年的盈利预测，以及锂化合物和电池业务利润率改善的预期，但预计商品和股票市场情绪短期内难以逆转。维持对赣锋锂业和天齐锂业的“中性”评级，目标价分别为70港元和52港元。市场对锂供需平衡仍缺乏共识，价格主要受消息面驱动。
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