金吾财讯 |摩根士丹利给出 SpaceX 超长周期业绩预期，预判企业 2040 年整体营收可达 3.4 万亿美元，同期调整后 EBITDA 突破 2.7 万亿美元。公司 2025 年财报落地数据为营收 187 亿美元、全年亏损 49 亿美元，AI 板块当期创收 32 亿美元，尚处于投入扩张阶段。
高盛与摩根士丹利对中期业绩测算趋于一致，两家机构均预判 SpaceX2028 年营收贴近 1600 亿美元，同年调整后 EBITDA 约 1100 亿美元。2030 年营收测算出现明显分歧，高盛预估突破 4700 亿美元，摩根士丹利则给出 3300 亿美元的预判值；对应 EBITDA 分别为 3520 亿美元、2300 亿美元。
两大投行统一将 AI 板块视作业绩扩容核心变量，认为自本年度起人工智能业务将成为营收主力。高盛测算该业务 2030 年创收 3220 亿美元，摩根士丹利预期为 1900 亿美元，相较 2025 年 32 亿美元基数实现数十倍规模抬升，也是企业远期营收兑现的关键支撑项。
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