金吾财讯 | 中信证券表示，白酒行业作为中国特有的消费品类，兼具日常消费、社交宴请、礼品馈赠等多重属性，其发展与宏观经济运行深度绑定、同频共振。该机构构建“宏观指标—消费场景—批价信号—盈利估值”四层传导模型，以五轮历史周期验证其有效性，预计商务场景有望在宏观经济政策刺激、PPI恢复的背景下有所恢复，家庭场景在房价企稳后会获得一定支撑。当前多维度宏观经济指标正显示白酒行业处于逐步恢复阶段，龙头已逐步展现出见底状态。短期来看，2026年以来，PPI回正叠加工业利润降幅收窄预示商务场景边际改善，茅台批价开始企稳、渠道库存压力缓释，行业有望从“止跌筑底”切换至“动销改善→报表修复”的正向循环。长期来看，传统商务宴请频次较高点显著回落，但消费升级趋势未变，中高端价格带在家庭聚饮、婚宴礼赠中渗透率持续提升，行业增长逻辑正从“商务驱动”转向“居民消费力支撑下的量价稳态增长”。行业从业绩、动销、批价等多个维度来看均已处于底部位置，建议关注长期配置价值。
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