金吾财讯 | 交银国际发布房地产行业下半年展望，中国内地房地产行业在政策持续加码下延续筑底态势，政策目标已从2025 年政府工作报告的“持续用力推动房地产市场止跌回稳”迈向2026年政府工作报告的“着力稳定房地产市场”。展望下半年，新房市场销售降幅逐步收窄，库存拐点带来希望；同时部分一线和重点城市出现价格拐点，近月一线城市新建/二手商品住宅指数环比均有所上升，多项指标也显示，二手房价格或正在筑底。该机构认为，行业仍呈现结构分化的格局，其中核心城市房价有望在供给收缩、政策叠加及租售比修复等多重因素推动下率先趋稳。投资建议：该机构看好估值不高以及拥有一/二线城市土地储备的龙头开发商，包括华润置地 (01109 HK/买入)和越秀地产(00123 HK/买入)，两家公司在过去几年的销售表现优异，且在销售方面执行能力更强。
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