金吾财讯 | 交银国际表示，如该机构此前预期，2026年上半年中国香港房地产市场呈现鲜明的“分化型复苏 ”格局，住宅市场量价齐升、韧性强劲，而商业物业则局部性反弹。该机构预计一手住宅成交量有望挑战13年新高，料全年住宅价格或可涨10%+，并有机会在2-3年内重回此前高位。核心区甲级写字楼已触底反弹，预计核心区域（大中环/尖沙咀）租金今年或上升 5-15%，非核心区域也会保持平稳。同时，零售市场近月明显的改善可拉动零售物业明后两年续租租金转正，料下半年核心区街铺商场租金将平稳上行，全年升幅约3-5%，小区购物中心租金表现相对稳定。投资主题上，学生住宿及教育相关资产正崛起为新的结构性增长点，酒店改学生宿舍等资产转化策略备受资本青睐。
该机构维持中国香港房地产行业领先评级，地产发展股当前仍处于NAV折让约40-50%的历史平均水平，但利润率扩张预期有望带动盈利预测上调，板块有估值进一步上升的空间。该机构看好拥有优质农地储备、核心投资物业及稳健财务的地产商，首选本地地产商龙头新鸿基地产（16 HK），维持买入。
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