ChainCatcher 消息，据 Galaxy Research 报告显示，比特币的 4 年周期模式依然有效，但每个周期的波动幅度正在收窄。
报告指出，2013 年、2017 年和 2021 年周期的峰值到谷底跌幅分别为 85%、84% 和 77%，而本轮从 2025 年 10 月高点至今最大回撤仅 51%。
由于本轮顶部相对温和，Galaxy 认为本轮周期底部也将相对较浅，基准情景预计在 4 万至 4.6 万美元区间，时间可能在 2026 年第四季度之前。
报告强调，当前距离顶部仅过去 8 个月，远低于历史周期底部形成所需的 12-13 个月，且多数周期底部信号尚未出现，因此本轮底部尚未形成。
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