ETF异动 | F三星原油期(03175)涨超3% 伊朗再度关闭霍尔木兹海峡 机构指市场低估油价短期与中期上行风险

智通财经
Jun 11

智通财经APP获悉,F三星原油期(03175)涨超3%,截至发稿,涨3.27%,报10.75港元,成交额85.64万港元。

消息面上,据新华社报道,当地时间6月11日,伊朗武装部队表示即日起霍尔木兹海峡对所有船只关闭,违规通行者将成为打击目标。同时,据多家伊朗媒体报道称,伊朗武装部队哈塔姆安比亚中央总部发布消息,鉴于地区局势动荡,即日起霍尔木兹海峡对所有船只关闭,包括油轮和商船,任何违规通行者都将成为打击目标。受此消息影响,国际油价盘中拉升涨近4%。

中信建投观点认为,市场低估了油价短期和中期的上行风险。短期看,一方面是霍尔木兹海峡已经关闭数周,更多油井被迫关停,而长时间关停将会导致部分产能的永久损失。长期看,在低资本开支的背景下,美国的库存井和新钻井数量屡创新低,这也意味着美国原油高产量难以为继,未来剩余供给和定价权有望掌握在中东手中。此前市场过分乐观估计了中东战事的结束进度,然而现实世界的矛盾越发显著,近期市场开始逐渐定价远期油价的上行,同样需要关注潜在的通胀风险。

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